Story
iPhone 18 Pro Wait Times Jump in Second Week, JP Morgan Reports
Summary
Lead times for Apple's new iPhone 18 Pro models have extended significantly in the second week of pre-orders, bringing them in line with last year's launch, according to analysis from JP Morgan. The bank notes the pace of demand appears to be exceeding the prior cycle, though some buyers may be waiting for the upcoming foldable model.
Wait times for Apple's new iPhone 18 Pro lineup have extended significantly in the second week of pre-orders, a key indicator of early demand that now largely mirrors the launch of the prior generation, according to a note from JP Morgan published Sunday.
Lead Times Lengthen for Pro Models
Analysts at the investment bank reported a sharp increase in the average global delivery wait times, known as lead times, from the first to the second week of availability. The rise suggests that the pace of demand for the premium models is currently outpacing the previous year's cycle.
- iPhone 18 Pro: Average lead time increased to 23 days from 7 days in week one.
- iPhone 18 Pro Max: Average lead time rose to 30 days from 19 days in week one.
JP Morgan noted this week-over-week increase is more pronounced than what was observed for the iPhone 17 series last year, which saw wait times for the Pro and Pro Max models extend by 9 and 7 days, respectively, over the same period.
Interpreting Early Demand Signals
AdLonger lead times can signal strong consumer demand, but they can also reflect supply and production levels. JP Morgan suggested the data implies a robust start for the Pro lineup but highlighted a critical upcoming data point: the pre-order launch of Apple's first foldable phone, the iPhone Duo, on October 16.
Analysts theorized that some consumer demand may be deferred as potential buyers wait for the new form factor. The bank stated it will be watching for a potential moderation of lead times into the third week. A more "definitive signal of demand" will come from supply chain feedback on production plan revisions, which typically occurs around November.
A Look at Key Markets
In the United States, which represents about 34% of total iPhone shipments, lead times for the 18 Pro and 18 Pro Max are now 21 days and 28 days, respectively. Similar trends were observed in European markets like Germany and the UK.
China, which accounts for roughly 19% of shipments, remains the only major market where lead times are still below those of the iPhone 17 series. However, JPM noted that this gap was narrowing for the Pro model. Wait times in China now stand at 27 days for the Pro and 33 days for the Pro Max.
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