Howmet Aerospace Stock Rebounds as Analysts Dismiss SpaceX Threat

Howmet Aerospace (HWM) shares rallied more than 3% in morning trading, rebounding sharply from the previous session's steep losses. The recovery was fueled by notes from two major Wall Street banks arguing that Monday's selloff, triggered by news of SpaceX's new manufacturing plans, was an overreaction and presented a buying opportunity.

Analyst Reassurance

Analysts at Citi and Bernstein moved to defend Howmet's market position following a 7.5% plunge in its stock on Monday. The drop was a reaction to an announcement from Elon Musk that SpaceX intends to cast its own gas turbine blades at a new facility in Texas.

In response, Wall Street analysts characterized the selloff as excessive:

• Citi analyst John Godyn reiterated a Buy rating and placed the stock on a "30-day upside catalyst watch," writing that the SpaceX news "reinforces the critical nature of HWM parts."
• Bernstein analyst Douglas Harned maintained an Outperform rating and raised his price target to $328, arguing SpaceX's decision reflects tight industry supply rather than a fundamental threat to Howmet.

Both firms suggested the move by SpaceX highlights the exceptional demand for industrial gas turbines (IGT) and the supply constraints within the industry, which ultimately benefits an established leader like Howmet.

Competitive Landscape

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Analysts pointed to several structural factors that insulate Howmet's business. The company holds long-term supply agreements with every major industrial gas turbine producer that extend through 2030. Howmet is also in the process of executing its own capacity expansion projects to meet demand.

Bernstein noted that SpaceX's timeline for self-production, targeting completion by the end of 2027, is years away from impacting Howmet's contracted revenue. The firm also suggested that SpaceX is likely to remain a Howmet customer in the broader supply chain.

Market Reaction

Howmet shares rose 3.5% in morning trading, a significant move against a challenging market backdrop. The broader S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices were down 0.6% and 1.0%, respectively, amid pressure from rising Treasury yields and oil prices.

Monday's 7.5% decline was the stock's worst single-day performance since April 2025, leaving it in a technically oversold condition. Sector peers GE Vernova and Siemens Energy, which also fell on the SpaceX news, likewise saw partial recoveries as investors reassessed the competitive threat.