GXO Logistics Sees Large, Complex Bullish Bet in Options Market Targeting 2027

A large and unusual options trade in GXO Logistics (NYSE:GXO) detected Friday afternoon indicates a significant, long-term bullish position on the contract logistics provider. The trade, involving over 8,100 contracts expiring in January 2027, was structured to capitalize on a potential rebound in the company's shares, which have been trading near their 52-week low.

Anatomy of the Trade

According to market data, the multi-leg transaction hit the tape around 1:42 PM ET on September 18, when GXO stock was trading at $45.78. The trade's low prior open interest suggests it represents a new position. The structure appears to be a ratio call spread risk reversal, a complex strategy involving three distinct legs:

• 2,000 call options bought at the $47.50 strike
• 4,000 call options bought at the $57.50 strike
• 2,000 put options sold at the $40.00 strike

This structure allows the trader to finance the purchase of the calls by selling the puts, which creates an obligation to buy GXO shares if the price falls below $40. The 2-to-1 ratio of higher-strike calls provides leveraged exposure to a significant upward move in the stock over the next 16 months.

Context: A Bet on Recovery

The trade comes as GXO's stock hovers just above its 52-week low of $44.99, having fallen over 13% year-to-date. The strike prices appear strategically chosen: the $47.50 calls target an initial recovery, while the $57.50 calls aim for a return to the midpoint of the stock's 52-week range of $44.99–$66.85.

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While GXO reported a revenue miss in its second-quarter 2026 earnings, it also highlighted new contracts with major aerospace and defense firms. Analyst sentiment has been mixed but includes positive outlooks, such as a Buy rating from Stifel with a $70 price target, which noted that 2026 is a heavy investment year for the company.

Volatility Signals Shifting Sentiment

Recent options market activity supports the bullish interpretation. The 3-month implied volatility for GXO options has risen to 41.98%, indicating increasing demand and cost for options contracts. More notably, the put-call skew, which measures the premium of puts relative to calls, has nearly flattened.

This collapse in skew suggests that heavy call buying is overwhelming the typical demand for downside protection via puts. The overall call-to-put volume ratio of 3-to-1 on Friday further confirms a shift in market sentiment toward upside speculation rather than bearish hedging.

Risks to the Bullish Thesis

Despite the optimistic options bet, significant risks remain. Technical indicators for GXO are broadly bearish, with some rating it a "Strong Sell." The primary risk embedded in this specific trade is the sold $40 puts. If GXO's stock breaks below its 52-week low and continues to decline, the trader would be forced to purchase 200,000 shares at $40 each, incurring substantial losses.