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Goldman Sachs Lifts Humanoid Robot Market Forecast to $138 Billion, Citing AI and Auto Sector's Role
Goldman Sachs has significantly raised its long-term forecast for the humanoid robot market, projecting it will reach $138 billion by 2035, a substantial increase from its previous estimate of approximately ¥6 trillion (roughly $38 billion). The investment bank attributed the upward revision to accelerating developments in physical artificial intelligence, which are enabling more companies to advance from prototypes to commercial-scale production.
A Sharply Upgraded Forecast
In a report published Monday, Goldman Sachs projected that total unit sales of humanoid robots will reach 6.48 million by 2035. This represents a nearly five-fold increase from its prior forecast of 1.38 million units.
The bank stated that progress in AI is speeding up the development timeline for these complex machines. This is encouraging a growing number of firms to move toward larger-scale manufacturing, transforming the technology from a conceptual phase to a viable commercial industry.
Automakers Seen as Key Enablers
Goldman Sachs identified the global automotive industry as being uniquely positioned to facilitate the mass production of humanoid robots. The report highlights automakers' extensive experience in manufacturing complex industrial products at scale as a critical advantage.
The firm evaluated global car manufacturers on their intent to enter the robotics market, the stagnation of their core business, and their financial and operational capabilities. According to the analysis, Tesla and Hyundai are currently among the most active participants in the humanoid robotics space.
AdSpotlight on Toyota and Potential Beneficiaries
Among Japanese automakers, Goldman Sachs noted that Toyota, Honda, and Mitsubishi Motors are relatively well positioned. The report singled out the Toyota Group, citing its labor needs, supply chain pressures from electric vehicles, existing technology, and strong management commitment as key drivers for its robotics ambitions.
Goldman Sachs estimated that Toyota could potentially produce between 190,000 and 540,000 humanoid robot units in 2035, capturing a global market share of 3% to 8%. This new business line could add 2% to 6% to the bank's gross profit estimate for Toyota for the fiscal year ending March 2027. The bank also identified several other potential stock beneficiaries in the supply chain, including:
- JTEKT
- Aisin
- MinebeaMitsumi
- Renesas
- Harmonic Drive
In a related move, Goldman Sachs initiated coverage of JTEKT with a Buy rating.
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