Euronext Wheat Rises as Black Sea Supply Fears Outweigh Weak Demand

Benchmark wheat futures on the Euronext exchange edged higher on Tuesday, as traders weighed the escalating risk of supply disruptions from the Black Sea region against persistent signs of sluggish import demand.

The most-active December wheat contract on the Paris-based Euronext settled up 0.6% at €235.75 ($272.95) per metric ton. The session also saw technical adjustments as traders rolled positions out of the September contract following the expiry of near-month options on Monday.

Black Sea Tensions Support Prices

Market focus remains fixed on the Black Sea, where weeks of reciprocal attacks by Russia and Ukraine on port infrastructure have sharply curtailed grain shipments. Unconfirmed reports on Tuesday of attacks on grain vessels near a Russian port sustained market concerns over prolonged trade interruptions from the critical export hub.

These supply-side risks have provided a floor for prices, offsetting other bearish factors. However, futures remain below a two-week high reached last Friday, indicating that the market has not fully priced in a worst-case scenario for regional supply.

Weak Demand Caps Gains

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Despite the geopolitical risks, there is currently little evidence that major importers are turning to alternative suppliers, such as Western Europe, to compensate for the potential shortfall from Russia and Ukraine.

Underscoring the soft demand picture, official data released by the European Union shows key export figures for the current season:

• EU soft wheat exports for the 2026/27 season (since July 1) stand at 1.48 million metric tons.
• This represents a 49% decrease compared to the same period in the previous year.

The significant drop in export volume suggests that either global buyers are delaying purchases or that existing high prices and logistical uncertainties are curbing overall demand for the time being.