Eni CEO Warns Persistent Mideast Tensions Could Push Oil Above $100 by 2027

The CEO of Italian energy giant Eni SpA, Claudio Descalzi, has warned that global crude oil prices could surpass $100 per barrel by the first quarter of 2027 if current conflicts in the Middle East persist. The forecast highlights growing risks of inflation and a potential drag on global energy demand.

Depleting Inventories and Geopolitical Risk

In an interview with Italy's *Il Sole 24 Ore* published Saturday, Descalzi stated that while emergency releases from strategic petroleum reserves have so far capped prices, these measures are finite. He cautioned that global oil inventories have been declining as supply disruptions linked to the conflict intensify, leaving the market increasingly vulnerable to further geopolitical shocks.

A sustained reduction in global stockpiles removes a critical buffer against supply disruptions. The Eni chief noted that increasing electricity demand, driven by the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence and data centers, adds another layer of urgency to securing reliable energy supplies.

A Call for Diversification

Descalzi argued that the long-term solution to market volatility is to improve energy security by diversifying both suppliers and transportation routes. He stressed the need to reduce reliance on vulnerable maritime chokepoints, which have recently been the site of attacks on shipping.

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To achieve this, he advocated for strengthening energy relationships with producers in North Africa, sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia. Descalzi noted that Eni itself has limited direct exposure to the Middle East, with the majority of its upstream production located in Africa and Latin America, insulating the company from some regional disruptions.

Market Context

Oil prices ended last week with significant gains, reflecting a geopolitical risk premium embedded in the market due to hostilities involving the U.S. and Iran. Brent crude futures, the international benchmark, settled around $76 a barrel, a weekly gain of about 5.4%. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures rose roughly 4% to approximately $71.40.

However, both benchmarks retreated on Friday as some investors wagered that the latest flare-up would remain contained and not cause a significant disruption to Middle East oil supplies.