Eni CEO Warns Oil Could Top $100 by 2027 on Persistent Mideast Tensions

Global crude oil prices could break above $100 per barrel by the first quarter of 2027 if geopolitical conflict in the Middle East persists, according to Claudio Descalzi, CEO of Italian energy major Eni SpA. The head of the energy giant warned that such a price surge would fuel inflation risks and negatively impact global energy demand.

Dwindling Buffers and Supply Risks

In an interview with Italy's *Il Sole 24 Ore*, Descalzi stated that emergency releases from strategic oil stockpiles have so far muted price increases. However, he cautioned that these measures are unsustainable as global reserves are finite and have been declining amid supply disruptions linked to the conflict in Iran.

A sustained reduction in inventories leaves the market increasingly exposed to further geopolitical shocks, Descalzi explained. He noted that stock draws have accelerated in recent months, tightening the global supply-demand balance.

Market Reacts to Geopolitical Premium

Oil markets ended the recent week with solid gains, reflecting a geopolitical risk premium driven by renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities and attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Despite a retreat on Friday, key benchmarks posted significant weekly increases:

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• Brent crude futures settled around $76 a barrel, up approximately 5.4% for the week.
• West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures gained roughly 4% to close near $71.40 a barrel.

Investors appeared to bet that the latest flare-up would not cause a significant disruption to Middle East oil supplies, leading to the late-week price easing.

A Call for Diversification

Descalzi argued that the long-term solution to energy security is the diversification of both crude suppliers and transportation routes, reducing reliance on vulnerable maritime chokepoints. He urged governments to strengthen energy relationships with producers in North Africa, sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia.

The Eni chief noted that his own company has limited direct exposure to the Middle East, with most of its upstream production concentrated in Africa and Latin America. He also highlighted that rapidly expanding electricity demand from artificial intelligence and data centers adds further urgency to securing diversified and reliable energy supplies.