Eni CEO Warns Oil Could Top $100 by 2027 Amid Middle East Tensions

The CEO of Italian energy major Eni SpA, Claudio Descalzi, has warned that global crude oil prices could break above $100 per barrel by the first quarter of 2027 if geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East continue. In an interview with Italy's Il Sole 24 Ore published Saturday, Descalzi stated that such a price surge would heighten inflation risks and weigh on global energy demand.

Dwindling Stockpiles and Supply Risks

Descalzi attributed the current price stability, in part, to emergency releases from strategic oil stockpiles, but cautioned that these measures are not sustainable indefinitely. He noted that global oil inventories have been declining as supply disruptions linked to the conflict in the region have intensified, leaving the market more exposed to future shocks.

A sustained reduction in these reserves, he argued, would remove a critical buffer against price volatility. The Eni chief also highlighted that the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence and data centers is causing a sharp increase in electricity consumption, adding urgency to the need for secure and reliable energy supplies.

Market Reacts to Tensions

Oil markets have already priced in a significant geopolitical risk premium due to renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities and attacks on shipping vessels. For the week, oil prices posted solid gains despite retreating from their midweek highs.

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• Brent Oil Futures: Settled around $76 a barrel, up approximately 5.4% for the week.
• Crude Oil WTI Futures: Gained roughly 4% to finish near $71.40 a barrel.

Prices eased on Friday as some investors bet that the latest flare-up would remain contained and not cause a significant disruption to Middle East oil supplies.

A Call for Diversification

According to Descalzi, the long-term solution to mitigate these risks is to improve energy security by diversifying both crude suppliers and transportation routes. He urged governments to deepen energy relationships with producers in North Africa, sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia to reduce dependence on politically sensitive maritime chokepoints.

Descalzi noted that Eni itself has limited direct exposure to the Middle East, with the majority of its upstream production located in Africa and Latin America. This positions the company as relatively insulated from direct regional disruptions.