Eni CEO: Oil Could Top $100 by 2027 if Mideast Tensions Persist

The CEO of Italian energy major Eni, Claudio Descalzi, has warned that persistent conflict in the Middle East could push global crude oil prices above $100 per barrel by the first quarter of 2027. He cautioned that while releases from strategic reserves have capped prices so far, this is a finite solution to the problem of dwindling global inventories.

Geopolitical Risks Drive Price Forecast

In an interview with Italy's *Il Sole 24 Ore* newspaper published Saturday, Descalzi projected that oil could break out of its recent $80-$100 per barrel trading range if regional hostilities continue. He argued that emergency releases from strategic stockpiles cannot continue indefinitely because global reserves are limited.

A sustained price surge to these levels would likely reignite inflation risks and weigh on global energy demand. The warning comes as oil markets remain on edge, with a geopolitical risk premium embedded in prices due to U.S.-Iran hostilities and attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

Dwindling Inventories and New Demand

Descalzi noted that global oil inventories have been declining as supply disruptions linked to the conflict have intensified, with stock draws accelerating in recent months. This sustained reduction in commercial and strategic stockpiles leaves the market increasingly exposed to further geopolitical shocks.

Adding to supply-side pressures, the Eni chief also pointed to a new source of demand growth. He said the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence and data centers is driving a sharp increase in electricity consumption, adding urgency to efforts to secure reliable energy supplies.

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The Path to Energy Security

To mitigate these long-term risks, Descalzi advocated for a strategy focused on diversifying both energy sources and transportation routes. He stressed the need for governments to reduce dependence on politically sensitive shipping chokepoints.

Key elements of this strategy, according to Descalzi, include:

• Deepening energy ties with producers in North Africa, sub-Saharan Africa, and Latin America.
• Actively diversifying both crude oil suppliers and transportation routes.

Descalzi added that Eni itself has limited direct exposure to the Middle East, with most of its upstream production located in Africa and Latin America, making the company relatively insulated from the current regional disruptions.