Durable Goods Orders, Consumer Sentiment Data to Guide Markets on Friday

Investors are bracing for a series of crucial U.S. economic data releases on Friday, September 25, with durable goods orders expected to provide a key reading on the health of the manufacturing sector. The reports, along with consumer sentiment figures and remarks from Federal Reserve officials, will be closely scrutinized for their potential impact on market dynamics and monetary policy expectations.

Manufacturing in Focus

The headline report, Durable Goods Orders for August, is scheduled for release at 7:30 AM ET. This indicator measures the value of new orders for long-lasting manufactured goods and serves as a key proxy for future production.

• Headline Durable Goods Orders: Economists forecast a decrease of -0.3%, a sharp reversal from the 1.1% increase reported previously.
• Core Durable Goods Orders: Excluding the volatile transportation sector, orders are expected to rise by 0.6%, compared to a 0.4% gain in the prior month. This core figure is often viewed as a more stable gauge of underlying business investment trends.

Another critical metric for business spending, new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft, will also be released. This figure was unchanged at 0.0% in the previous report.

Consumer Health and Fed Commentary

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Later in the morning, at 9:00 AM ET, the University of Michigan will release its final Consumer Sentiment index for September. The survey provides insight into household confidence regarding personal finances and the broader economy.

• Consumer Sentiment: The index is forecast to fall to 47.8 from a previous reading of 51.7.
• Inflation Expectations: The report's inflation components are closely watched by the Federal Reserve. The 1-year inflation expectation is forecast to rise to 4.6%, while the 5-year outlook is expected to tick up to 3.4%.

Market participants will also parse commentary from Federal Reserve officials for clues on the economic outlook. FOMC member John Williams is scheduled to speak at 4:15 AM ET, followed by Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid at 8:20 AM ET.

Other Key Indicators

A range of other data will provide a broader snapshot of the economy. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model, a running estimate of real GDP growth, is expected to be updated at 9:00 AM ET, with the previous forecast at 5.1%. At 12:00 PM ET, the Baker Hughes rig count will offer a timely indicator of activity in the U.S. oil and gas industry.