Dangote Refinery CEO Warns of Prolonged Fuel Shortages Post-Conflict

Global fuel shortages are expected to persist for a considerable time even after major geopolitical conflicts conclude, due to widespread damage to refining infrastructure and the need to replenish inventories, according to David Bird, the chief executive of Nigeria's Dangote Petroleum Refinery.

Lingering Supply Constraints

Bird noted that the global refining industry was already operating at high utilization rates before recent conflicts began. He explained that refineries in the Middle East are struggling to meet current demand while also facing war-related damages that have forced delays in routine maintenance, putting significant strain on global supply.

The recovery will be further prolonged as nations prioritize supply security, the CEO said. Governments are actively discussing plans to increase their strategic reserve levels, which will divert refined products from the open market and extend the time needed for a return to normal conditions.

Profitable Turnaround Amid Disruption

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Dangote Refinery has been a beneficiary of the market shifts caused by conflicts in regions like Ukraine and the Middle East. These events have damaged global refining capacity and disrupted exports, leading to worldwide shortages of gasoline and diesel and boosting margins for operational refineries.

Reflecting this market environment, the company reported a significant financial turnaround. According to an IPO prospectus released on Monday, Dangote Refinery posted an after-tax profit of $1.82 billion for the first half of the year, a stark contrast to the $476 million loss recorded for the previous full fiscal year.

Strategic Expansion Plans

In response to the tight market, Dangote is pursuing ambitious growth. The company plans to double its current capacity, a move that would position it to surpass India's Jamnagar facility as the world's largest single-train refinery. Additionally, Dangote is planning to construct a second refinery in Kenya to further expand its footprint.