CPC Blend Oil Exports Scheduled at 1.5 Million BPD for September Amid Maintenance

Exports of Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) Blend crude oil are scheduled to hold at 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in September, a level consistent with or slightly below August volumes, according to three traders familiar with the matter.

September Export Schedule

The planned volume for September compares to an export range of 1.5 million to 1.6 million bpd in August. The slight reduction in the export schedule is attributed to planned maintenance work at the Karachaganak oilfield, a key source of crude for the pipeline.

Traders cautioned that the scheduled figures represent a plan, and actual loadings could face disruptions. Potential headwinds include adverse weather conditions in the Black Sea and the continued risk of drone attacks in the region.

Market Impact and Regional Risks

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Security concerns have significantly impacted shipping dynamics in the Black Sea, driving freight rates for oil shipments to unprecedented levels. According to the traders, most shipowners are declining to load oil from Russian-controlled ports in the area due to the elevated risks.

However, the CPC terminal is increasingly viewed as a more favorable loading point compared to the nearby Novorossiysk Sheskharis terminal. This shift in preference follows Ukraine’s stated commitment to not attack non-Russian vessels departing from Black Sea ports.

Context on the CPC Pipeline

The CPC pipeline is a critical piece of global energy infrastructure, transporting crude oil primarily from Kazakhstan to a marine terminal near the Russian port of Novorossiysk. The pipeline's flow accounts for approximately 2% of the world's oil supply, making its operational stability a key factor for international energy markets.