Chilean Copper Output to Fall 2.6% in 2026 on Operational Woes, Cochilco Says

Chile’s copper production is forecast to decline by 2.6% this year to 5.27 million metric tons before recovering in 2027, the country's state copper commission, Cochilco, announced on Tuesday. The revised forecast reflects operational difficulties at major mines, including those run by state-owned Codelco and global miner BHP.

Production Headwinds in 2026

Cochilco attributed the expected drop in output to a particularly weak first half of the year. The agency highlighted underperformance at Codelco as well as at BHP’s Escondida and Spence mines, two of the world's largest copper operations. Several other mines also reportedly faced structural limitations that hampered production.

A partial recovery is anticipated in the second half of 2026. This will be supported by improvements at Codelco’s El Teniente division and progress at the miner's Rajo Inca project, according to the commission.

Rebound Forecast for 2027

Looking ahead, Cochilco projects that national copper output will rebound to 5.55 million tons in 2027. The recovery will be driven by a low base of comparison from 2026 and the gradual ramp-up of several key operations.

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Key contributors to the 2027 recovery are expected to include:

• Codelco, Escondida, and Los Pelambres, which is operated by Antofagasta.
• Greater stability at Teck’s Quebrada Blanca complex.
• Normalized operations at Capstone Copper’s Mantoverde.
• Improved ore and water conditions at Collahuasi, which is jointly owned by Anglo American, Glencore, and a Japanese consortium.

Market Impact and Price Outlook

Citing strong global demand and persistent supply constraints, Cochilco raised its forecast for the average copper price in 2026 to $5.95 per pound. The tight market conditions suggest that even with lower output from Chile, the world's top producer, prices are expected to remain elevated. For 2027, the agency maintained its price estimate at $5.10 per pound.