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CBOT Wheat Futures Hit Six-Week High on USDA Report Expectations
Wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) surged to a six-week high in early trading Friday, driven by trader positioning ahead of a key U.S. government report widely expected to show tighter domestic supplies.
Market Activity
Traders actively adjusted their positions before the U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA) monthly crop data release, scheduled for 12 p.m. EDT. The upward price movement was seen across the complex.
Key contract prices included:
- CBOT September soft red winter wheat was last up 13-1/4 cents at $6.33 per bushel.
- K.C. September hard red winter wheat rose 15-3/4 cents to $6.70 per bushel.
- Minneapolis September spring wheat gained 9-1/2 cents to $6.48-1/2 per bushel.
USDA Report in Focus
AdThe market's bullish sentiment is centered on expectations for the USDA's influential report. According to a poll of analysts, the agency is forecast to lower its estimate for 2026-27 U.S. wheat ending stocks to 714 million bushels.
This would mark a notable reduction from the 744 million bushels projected in June. Lower ending stocks indicate a tighter supply-demand balance, which is typically supportive of commodity prices.
Global Supply Concerns
Adding to supply-side worries, the grain trade association Coceral recently cut its forecast for soft wheat production in the European Union and Britain by 2%, citing adverse heat conditions. This development points to potential constraints on global availability.
Furthermore, market participants continue to monitor geopolitical tensions related to the Russia-Ukraine war. Any potential escalation involving the two major grain-exporting nations could further disrupt global trade flows and add a risk premium to prices.