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CBOT Wheat Futures Hit Six-Week High on Expectations of Tighter U.S. Supply
Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures rose to a six-week high on Friday as traders positioned themselves ahead of a crucial monthly crop report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).
Price Action and Report Anticipation
Market participants bid up contracts in anticipation that the USDA will lower its forecast for U.S. wheat inventories, signaling a tighter supply outlook. The monthly data is scheduled for release at 12 p.m. EDT.
Key price movements included:
- CBOT September soft red winter wheat (the most active contract) was last up 13-1/4 cents at $6.33 per bushel.
- K.C. September hard red winter wheat rose 15-3/4 cents to $6.70 per bushel.
- Minneapolis September spring wheat gained 9-1/2 cents to $6.48-1/2 per bushel.
AdMarket Expectations
Analysts polled ahead of the release widely expect the USDA to reduce its estimate for 2026-27 U.S. wheat ending stocks. The consensus forecast is for a drop to 714 million bushels, down from the 744 million bushels projected in June. A reduction in ending stocks, which are the leftover inventories at the end of a marketing year, typically implies stronger demand or weaker production and is considered bullish for prices.
Global Supply Concerns
Adding to supply-side concerns, the grain trade association Coceral recently cut its soft wheat production forecast for the European Union and Britain by 2%, citing adverse heat conditions. Traders also continue to monitor geopolitical tensions related to the Russia-Ukraine war, as both nations are major global grain exporters and any escalation could disrupt supply chains.