CBOT Wheat Futures Climb to Six-Week High Ahead of USDA Supply Report

Chicago wheat futures surged to a six-week high in early trading on Friday, with market participants adjusting positions ahead of a key U.S. government report expected to show tighter domestic supplies.

Market Snapshot

Contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) saw broad gains as traders anticipated bullish data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). Key price movements included:

• CBOT September soft red winter wheat rose 13-1/4 cents to $6.33 per bushel.
• K.C. September hard red winter wheat gained 15-3/4 cents, trading at $6.70 per bushel.
• Minneapolis September spring wheat was up 9-1/2 cents to $6.48-1/2 per bushel.

Focus on USDA Data

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The primary driver for the rally is the monthly crop data from the USDA, scheduled for release at 12 p.m. EDT. According to a poll of analysts cited by Investing.com, the market consensus is for the agency to lower its forecast for 2026-27 U.S. wheat ending stocks.

Analysts expect the USDA to revise its estimate down to 714 million bushels, a significant reduction from the 744 million bushels projected in June. A lower-than-expected supply figure typically puts upward pressure on prices.

Global Supply Concerns

Adding to supply-side concerns, the grain trade association Coceral recently reduced its soft wheat production forecast for the European Union and Britain by 2%, citing adverse heat conditions. Traders are also continuing to monitor geopolitical tensions in the Black Sea region, as any potential escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war could impact grain exports from both major producing nations.