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CBOT Wheat Futures Climb to Six-Week High Ahead of USDA Supply Report
Wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) rose to a six-week high in early trading Friday, with market participants adjusting positions ahead of a key monthly crop report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).
Price Movement
Contracts for wheat saw broad gains of 12 to 14 cents per bushel as investors anticipated tighter supply forecasts. Specific futures prices included:
- CBOT September soft red winter wheat was last up 13-1/4 cents at $6.33 per bushel.
- K.C. September hard red winter wheat climbed 15-3/4 cents to $6.70 per bushel.
- Minneapolis September spring wheat gained 9-1/2 cents, trading at $6.48-1/2 per bushel.
USDA Report Expectations
AdThe primary driver for the price increase is the upcoming USDA data, scheduled for release at 12 p.m. EDT. According to a poll of analysts cited by Investing.com, the market consensus is for the USDA to lower its estimate for 2026-27 U.S. wheat ending stocks.
Analysts expect the agency to revise the figure down to 714 million bushels from the 744 million bushels projected in June. A reduction in ending stocks, which are the leftover inventories at the end of a marketing year, typically signals a tighter supply-demand balance and can be supportive of prices.
Global Supply Factors
Adding to supply-side concerns, European grain trade association Coceral recently reduced its soft wheat production forecast for the European Union and Britain by 2%, citing adverse heat conditions. Traders are also continuing to monitor geopolitical tensions related to the Russia-Ukraine war, as any escalation could potentially disrupt grain exports from the critical Black Sea region.