Barclays Sees Up to $10 Upside Risk to 2026 Brent Forecast on Hormuz Tensions

Barclays warned on Friday that its 2026 oil price forecast faces significant upside risks, contingent on the duration of the ongoing disruption at the Strait of Hormuz. The bank's analysis suggests a prolonged impasse at the critical energy chokepoint could substantially inflate crude prices.

Potential Price Scenarios

In a note to clients, Barclays outlined several scenarios based on how long the current situation persists. The bank sees a material impact on its $96 per barrel forecast for Brent crude in 2026:

• A one-month impasse could add $2 per barrel.
• A two-month impasse could add $7 per barrel.
• A three-month impasse could add $10 per barrel.

In the most severe three-month scenario, Barclays stated that the spot price for Brent crude could surge and "test $150/bbl." This highlights the market's sensitivity to sustained supply disruptions from the region.

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Market Context

The warning comes as renewed hostilities have heightened investor concerns over global energy security. Oil prices recently spiked to $100 a barrel for the first time since May, reacting to a near-halt in trade through the Strait of Hormuz, a transit route that previously handled around a fifth of global energy supplies.

Despite these near-term risks, Barclays maintained its existing forecasts of $96/bbl for 2026 and $85/bbl for 2027. This baseline view aligns with broader market expectations, reflected in a recent Reuters poll, which anticipates a global oil deficit in 2026 before the market tips into a surplus in 2027, driven by recovering Gulf output, robust U.S. production, and potentially weaker demand from China.