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AST SpaceMobile Options Market Prices 12% Swing on Upcoming Earnings
The options market is anticipating significant volatility for AST SpaceMobile Inc. (NASDAQ: ASTS), pricing in a potential 12% stock price move in either direction following the company's upcoming earnings report. The satellite communications firm is scheduled to release its financial results after the market closes on August 10.
Market Expectations
The 12% figure represents the options-implied move, a measure of expected volatility derived from the pricing of options contracts. This metric indicates the consensus among traders about how much a stock's price might fluctuate after a specific catalyst, such as an earnings release. The data was compiled by Bloomberg.
Historical Performance vs. Implied Moves
An analysis of the company's last eight earnings reports shows a mixed record of actual price movement compared to market expectations. The stock has exceeded the options-implied move on three of those eight occasions, sometimes dramatically.
AdKey historical post-earnings moves include:
- August 14, 2024: A 60.6% surge, far exceeding the 12.7% implied move.
- November 10, 2025: A 15.4% drop, slightly larger than the 13.6% implied move.
- March 2, 2026: A 15.6% gain, surpassing the 12.1% implied move.
In the other five instances, the stock's reaction was more muted than what the options market had priced in. Following its most recent earnings release on May 11, the stock moved just 2.9%, significantly less than the 12.1% implied volatility.
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