Arabica Coffee Hits 10-Week Low as Brazil Exports and Weather Improve

Arabica coffee futures traded on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) fell to a 10-week low, pressured by an improved supply outlook from Brazil, the world's largest producer. Favorable weather conditions and a surge in export volumes weighed on prices despite historically low exchange inventories.

Brazil Supply Weighs on Prices

The price decline is primarily driven by developments in Brazil. According to broker ADMIS, the market is reacting to reports of strong Brazilian exports and beneficial growing conditions for the country's 2027 coffee crop.

Key supply-side factors include:

• Increased Exports: Data for the first two weeks of September showed Brazil's green coffee exports averaged approximately 13,500 metric tons per day.
• Significant Volume Growth: This daily average represents a 51.5% increase compared to the previous period, signaling that more supply is reaching the global market.

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Market Specifics and Inventory Context

During Wednesday's session, the Arabica coffee contract declined 0.7% to $2.8170 per pound. This followed a low of $2.8120 reached on Monday, the weakest level in 10 weeks. The broader coffee market also saw declines, with Robusta coffee futures falling 1.8% to $3,418 per metric ton.

This downward price pressure comes even as ICE-monitored Arabica stocks remain exceptionally tight. According to exchange data, available inventories stand at 217,646 bags, a 27-year low. While such low stock levels would typically be supportive of prices, the current focus for traders appears to be on the improving forward-looking supply from South America.