Applied Digital Options Market Prices in 13% Post-Earnings Move

The options market is pricing in a potential 13% move in either direction for Applied Digital Corp. (NASDAQ: APLD) shares following the company's upcoming earnings announcement on July 27. This expectation of volatility is based on options data compiled by Bloomberg.

Market Expectations

The implied move is derived from the pricing of options contracts and reflects the market's consensus on how much a stock might swing after a significant news event, such as an earnings release. For Applied Digital's report, which is scheduled for after the market close, traders are betting on a double-digit percentage change in the stock's value.

This figure serves as a benchmark for investors gauging the potential risk and reward associated with holding a position through the earnings report. It is a measure of expected volatility, not a prediction of the direction of the move.

Historical Volatility

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An analysis of Applied Digital's past performance shows the stock has a history of making large moves that can exceed market expectations. According to Bloomberg data, the stock's actual post-earnings move has surpassed the options-implied swing in four of the past eight reporting periods.

Some of the most significant reactions include:

• January 7, 2026: A 32.6% surge, more than double the 14.2% implied move.
• October 9, 2025: A 36% gain, far outpacing the 18.3% expected move.
• April 14, 2025: A 30.1% decline, nearly twice the 15.4% implied move.

However, in its most recent report on April 8, 2026, the stock moved 7.7%, which was below the 14.7% implied by the options market at the time. This mixed history highlights the inherent uncertainty and significant event risk for the company's shares around its quarterly financial disclosures.