US Humanoid Robot Maker May Boost Production 10-Fold, Citi Says

A leading U.S. humanoid robot manufacturer may be preparing to increase its weekly production by nearly 10x to approximately 1,500 units by October 2026, according to a research note from Citi published Monday. The bank's analysis, based on supply chain checks in China, suggests a significant acceleration in the commercialization of humanoid robotics.

Production Ramp-Up Projections

Citi's checks indicate a steep production trajectory for the unnamed U.S. company. Following the initial surge in late 2026, weekly output could further rise to between 2,000 and 2,500 units by early 2027, potentially reaching 8,000 units per week by the end of that year.

The bank maintained its annual production forecast for 2027 at 100,000 to 200,000 units. Citi also noted that the U.S. manufacturer may hold one or two product launch events in the coming months, signaling growing confidence in its technology and manufacturing capabilities.

Key Suppliers Identified

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Citi identified three Chinese component makers as potential beneficiaries of this rapid expansion, highlighting the critical role of the Asian supply chain in the nascent industry.

• Hengli Hydraulic: The bank suggests orders could expand beyond planetary roller screws to include linear guides and electric drives. Citi estimates that humanoid robot components could account for 1% of Hengli’s revenue in 2026, growing to 8% in 2027.
• Shuanghuan Drive: Citing an existing relationship with the U.S. customer on electric vehicles, Citi sees an opportunity for the company to supply high-torque reducers for the robot's waist or hip joints.
• Leader Drive: While its specific share with the leading U.S. maker remains unclear, Citi noted that the company has secured orders for its harmonic reducers from other U.S. firms like Figure AI and Apptronik, as well as Chinese robotics companies.

Market Implications

This projected production increase underscores the accelerating pace of development in the humanoid robot sector. For investors, it draws attention to the specialized component manufacturers that form the backbone of the industry. The potential for substantial orders from a market leader could have significant revenue implications for these suppliers, positioning them as key players in the evolution of advanced robotics.