On Semiconductor Options Pricing in 10% Post-Earnings Move

On Semiconductor Corp. (ON) shares could experience a significant price swing following its upcoming earnings report, with options market data implying a potential move of 10% in either direction. The semiconductor firm is scheduled to release its financial results on August 3, after the market closes.

Market Expectations

The 10% implied move is derived from the pricing of options contracts that expire after the earnings announcement, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. This figure reflects traders' collective expectation for the stock's volatility and represents the potential magnitude of the price change, not a prediction of its direction.

Investors use this data to gauge market sentiment and potential risk surrounding key events like earnings releases. A high implied move suggests that traders are bracing for a substantial reaction to the company's financial results and forward guidance.

A Look at Past Performance

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An analysis of On Semiconductor's last eight earnings reports shows a mixed record for the options market's predictive accuracy. According to the data, the implied move was a relatively close predictor of the actual stock change on four of those eight occasions.

However, there have also been notable divergences between expectations and reality:

• In August 2025, options implied a 9.7% move, but the stock ultimately fell 15.7%.
• Conversely, in November 2025, an 8.9% implied move was followed by a minimal stock decline of just 0.5%.
• For the most recent report in May 2026, the market priced in a 9.4% swing, but the stock's actual move was a more modest 4.3%.