European Beer and Soft Drink Sales Slowed in Late Summer, UBS Data Shows

European sales volumes for beer and carbonated soft drinks (CSDs) decelerated sharply in late summer, while the spirits category remained weak, according to a UBS analysis of Nielsen off-trade data. The report, which covers the four weeks ending September 6, points to a potential cooling of consumer demand following a stronger performance earlier in the quarter.

Category-Wide Deceleration

The latest data reveals a significant slowdown across major beverage categories compared to the prior four-week period. The reversal was most pronounced in the beer sector, which had previously shown robust growth.

• Beer volumes: Turned negative, falling 3.1% in the latest period, a stark reversal from 4.6% growth in the prior four weeks.
• CSD volumes: Growth slowed dramatically to 1.4% from a much stronger 9.2% previously.
• Spirits volumes: Remained in negative territory, contracting by 4.9%. This was a slight moderation from the previous period's 5.6% decline.

Despite the recent weakness, volume data for the third quarter to date still shows growth of 1% for beer and 5.1% for CSDs, according to the UBS note. However, spirits volumes are down 5% for the quarter to date.

Performance by Major Brands

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The slowdown was reflected in the performance of Europe's largest beverage companies. Major brewers saw a uniform shift from growth to contraction in the four-week period.

• Anheuser-Busch InBev volumes declined 1.3%, compared to 6.2% growth previously.
• Heineken volumes were down 0.9%, after posting 7.8% growth in the prior period.
• Carlsberg volumes fell 1.7%, versus 1% growth previously.

In the spirits category, results were mixed but generally soft. Pernod Ricard sales fell 3.9%, though this was an improvement from a 7.4% drop in the prior period. Diageo saw a modest value increase of 0.4%. Among soft drink bottlers, Coca-Cola Europacific Partners (CCEP) saw CSD volume growth slow to 1.8% from 8.4% previously.

Market Implications

This off-trade sales data provides an early indicator of consumer behavior and can signal potential headwinds for beverage companies' upcoming quarterly earnings. The sharp deceleration toward the end of the third quarter suggests that momentum from earlier in the summer has faded. Investors will be closely watching for company guidance to determine if this trend reflects a temporary lull or a more persistent shift in consumer spending habits.