Employment Cost Index, Consumer Sentiment Data to Close Out July

Investors are set to close out the final trading day of July with a close watch on key economic reports that will provide fresh insights into inflation, manufacturing activity, and consumer confidence. The data, scheduled for release on Friday, July 31, 2026, includes the Employment Cost Index, the Chicago PMI, and the final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey.

Labor Costs in Focus

The primary release will be the second-quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI), a broad gauge of labor costs that is closely monitored by the Federal Reserve for inflationary pressures. Economists forecast a 0.8% increase for the quarter, a slight deceleration from the 0.9% rise seen in the previous period, according to Investing.com data.

The ECI is considered a more comprehensive measure than average hourly earnings because it includes both wages and benefits. A significant deviation from expectations could influence market sentiment regarding the future path of interest rates.

Manufacturing and Consumer Health

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Traders will also parse the July Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for an update on regional manufacturing health. The index registered 56.7 in the prior month, and a reading above 50 signifies expansion in the sector.

Later in the morning, the final July reading for the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index is due. The index is expected to be confirmed at 54.4, matching the preliminary figure. This report offers a timely look at how consumers view their personal finances and the economic outlook, which can impact future spending.

Other Market Indicators

The day's schedule also includes weekly data from Baker Hughes on the U.S. oil and gas rig count, a leading indicator of future energy production. Additionally, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) will release its weekly Commitment of Traders reports, detailing the net positions of speculative traders in markets for crude oil, gold, and major stock indices.