Bitcoin Targets $96,700 Resistance as On-Chain Metrics Signal Bullish Shift

Bitcoin has climbed back above a key cost basis area that suppressed its price for much of the year, shifting market focus from confirming a bottom to assessing the potential height of the current rally. According to an analysis by Woofun AI, the next major on-chain resistance level for the cryptocurrency is the mean MVRV price, located at approximately $96,700.

On-Chain Data Suggests Shallow Pullback

On-chain indicators suggest the recent market downturn was historically mild, providing a strong base for the current rebound. Unlike the 2018-2019 and 2022-2023 bear markets, Bitcoin's price never closed below its "realized price"—the average acquisition cost for all coins in circulation—during the June 2026 low.

Furthermore, the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric, which measures the overall profitability of the market, never entered negative territory. This contrasts sharply with previous cycles where it fell deep into the negative zone, indicating that the recent pullback involved significantly less widespread losses and therefore weaker pressure to sell.

Key Support and Resistance Levels

Analysts have identified a clear trading range based on on-chain data and derivatives market positioning. The primary resistance target is the mean MVRV price of $96,700, which represents the point where the average holder's profit returns to its long-term normal level.

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• Key Resistance: $95,000 to $97,000. Options data from Deribit shows a significant buildup of positive gamma exposure around the $95,000 strike price, which could dampen volatility and act as a strong barrier.
• Immediate Support: $84,000 to $85,000. This zone represents a large concentration of long-term holder supply, forming a solid floor below the current price.
• Critical Support: $77,000. This level, identified as the "real market mean," serves as the ultimate defensive line for the current rally.

Maintaining the $84,000 level keeps the path to $96,700 open, while a drop below it would bring the $77,000 support back into focus.

Resurgent Inflows and Spot Volume

The rally is supported by renewed institutional interest and strong spot market activity. After two consecutive weeks of net outflows, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of approximately $1.3 billion in the five days following the start of the price recovery.

Spot trading volume across major exchanges has surged by 121% since the rebound began, more than doubling from its August lows. This marks the first time in over a year that a significant volume spike has accompanied a price increase, signaling strong buyer conviction rather than capitulation selling, according to the Woofun AI report. Profit-taking remains light compared to previous market tops, suggesting the rally may have further to run.